Updated on June 18, 2018 10:24:11 AM EDT
There is nothing of importance taking place today. We are seeing bonds react favorably to fairly heavy selling in stocks. Stocks are reacting to more trade war speculation as China retaliated against the U.S. latest batch of tariffs on goods from China. The tariffs are believed to be a hurdle for the economy, restricting corporate profits and economic growth. Since stocks are usually pro-economic growth and bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, we are seeing stocks down and bonds up slightly today.
The rest of the week brings us the release of only three pieces of monthly economic data that may affect mortgage rates and none of them are considered to be highly important. This should be a much calmer week for mortgage rates than last week was. If we see a big move in mortgage rates, it likely will not be a result of the economic reports but of other factors such as tariff or geopolitical news.
Mays Housing Starts is the first release of the week at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. This report tracks groundbreakings of new home projects, but is not considered to be as important as other housing data. This means it likely will not affect mortgage rates unless its results vary greatly from forecasts. Market analysts are expecting to see an increase in starts of new homes last month. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a good-sized decline because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely.
Overall, it is difficult to label any particular day as the most important due to such a light calendar this week. We still should see movement in rates more than one day, although I am not expecting them to make a big move unless something unexpected happens. Even though there is little happening this week, it still would be prudent to watch the markets if still floating an interest rates because the markets can get active without notice.
©Mortgage Commentary 2018